As Ubisoft’s CEO insists “We have no pay-to-win elements in our games,” his company’s stock prices seamlessly plummet. A long track record speaks otherwise to his claims, evidenced by Far Cry: New Dawn, The Division 2, and Ghost Recon: Breakpoint. While The Division 2 merely walked a fine line with paid extras, the same cannot be said for the latter, whose various microtransactions can be used to bolster anything from players’ guns to perk upgrades. The lackluster turn around for both The Division 2 and Breakpoint have shown tremendously as shareholders jump ship, which explains away the more pressing matters for gamers: The Last of Us Part II has been delayed.
Overall, though, it’s clear that Ubisoft has hit both a financial and commercial roadblock.
Nearly 6 months ago, evidenced by a thought-provoking Reddit post, some believed Ubisoft would forge ahead, given the slight praise for The Division 2 and a potential new Assassin’s Creed title. Now, however, investors seem to be growing both frustrated and wary for the future as stocks drop about 25% in 3 months and a total of 38% for the whole year. Yves Guillemot, Ubisoft Chief Executive Officer, said that “We didn’t fully deliver on both games,” which is an understatement. Cutting its forecasted targets by a huge margin, from 2.19 billion euros to 1.45 billion euros, Ubisoft has effectively ensured a steady recovery, so long as the next batch of video games proves worthwhile.
Neil Campling, a Mirabaud Securities’ analyst, said:
In addition to net bookings seeing a downward spiral, so too has projected operating income from 480 million euros to between 20 and 50 million euros, which is astounding. On top of that, Ubisoft’s 2023 maturing 5-year notes showed their longest drop on record, falling from 0.9 cents to 100.9 cents. Pushing all of its future titles back, due in large part to Ghost Recon Breakpoint’s disappointing launch, Ubisoft intends to reassess the market and emerge clean-shaven for next-gen consoles.
“Investors will be frustrated with recent developments, and rightly so. But by ensuring that the future releases are given a closer focus on quality - and then timed for the following fiscal year, when the additional catalyst of the next generation of consoles will be with us, then this misstep now could turn into a well-timed opportunity ahead.”
Robert Berg, an analyst out of Berenberg, said:
Though both fans and investors may be extremely concerned by the news, it’s obvious that Ubisoft is thinking long-term. Highly anticipated titles, such as The Last of Us Part II and Watch Dogs: Legion will be promising reentries to well-loved franchises and are sure to draw in immense success by their names alone. Rainbow Six Quarantine will likewise draw a crowd, though time will only tell if the company can bounce back. Second-quarter earnings for Ubisoft will be posted on October 30.
“It will clearly take some time for confidence to return. Although it must have been a very tough decision, we believe management is doing exactly the right thing by delaying these games.”
As of writing (October 25 at 9 p.m.), Ubisoft shares have bounced back only slightly by about 0.31%.
